Optimizing Dengue Control Strategies: A Two-Patch Mathematical Modelling Approach

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Anushree Rai
Rukhsar Khan
Manohar Khatarkar
Shubham Chaudhry
Jitendra Malviya


This paper investigates the complex dynamics and control strategies of dengue virus transmission, particularly focusing on the case of India. With dengue infections on the rise globally, the study addresses the challenges posed by factors such as urbanization, tourism, and climate change. It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of the virus's evolution and prevalence in India, a country experiencing a significant burden of dengue cases. The research employs a two-patch model of dengue transmission, considering human mobility between patches, to simulate the spread of the virus. The study explores the immunological constraints, transmission limits, and the influence of previous serotype infections on dengue evolution. Additionally, it highlights the potential impact of dengue vaccines, emphasizing the importance of assessing their efficacy against prevalent strains in India. The paper introduces an optimal control approach, focusing on corrective actions, such as insecticide spraying, to minimize the economic and health burdens associated with dengue outbreaks. In conclusion, the paper contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of dengue virus transmission in India, offering a nuanced perspective on factors influencing its evolution and control. The optimal control strategies presented underscore the potential for cost-effective measures to mitigate the impact of dengue outbreaks, thereby providing a foundation for informed public health policies.

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